<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!--Generated by Squarespace Site Server v5.9.2 (http://www.squarespace.com/) on Sat, 13 Mar 2010 05:59:16 GMT--><rss xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" version="2.0"><channel><title>Trading Blog</title><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/</link><description></description><lastBuildDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 09:46:23 +0000</lastBuildDate><copyright></copyright><language>en-GB</language><generator>Squarespace Site Server v5.9.2 (http://www.squarespace.com/)</generator><item><title>RCG (802 HK): Cloudy issues around-under review</title><category>802</category><category>Industrial</category><category>RCG</category><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 09:43:39 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2010/2/8/rcg-802-hk-cloudy-issues-around-under-review.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6606700</guid><description><![CDATA[<p><em>to summarize&hellip;</em></p>
<p class="Bullet1">-The second largest shareholder was rejected by the judge for his claim on Nina Wong&rsquo;s heritage.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">-The shareholding structure is uncertain now with the possibility that two largest shareholders may sell their shares.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">-Share price is under pressure in short term although the company in long run may benefit from expected simplified shareholder structure.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/reports-sbi-e2/802HQ080210.pdf" type="application/pdf" length="156315"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6606700.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Wasion (3393 HK): Margin pressure from centralized procurement, but over-sold- BUY</title><category>3393</category><category>Industrial</category><category>Wasion</category><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 09:39:10 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2010/2/8/wasion-3393-hk-margin-pressure-from-centralized-procurement.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6606696</guid><description><![CDATA[<p><em>to summarize&hellip;</em></p>
<p class="Bullet1">-Wasion won orders for 329,725 single-phase smart metres (12.5% of total) in SGCC&rsquo;s first round of centralized procurement but nil for three-phase ones due to conservative pricing strategy.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">-Downside risk on market occupancy is limited, but trial-and-error price adjustment might cause temporary market share loss. Long-term outlook, however, remains positive backed by the company&rsquo;s leading position in both branding and technology.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">-Margin squeeze is anticipated. We believe gross margin of three-phase products will drop ~15pcps while single-phase 5pcps, with reference of past experience from telecom industry.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">-Some demand was on hold in 2H 09 due to pending release of smart metre standard and will likely be realized in 2010.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">-Earnings forecasts were revised by -9.7%, +6.3% and -19.3%, respectively, for FY12/09F-12/11F.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">-Target price was cut from HK$8.14 to HK$5.75 to reflect mainly the expected margin squeeze industry wise.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">-The stock was heavily sold recently, which brings buy-in opportunity.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">-Risk is at both upside and downside, mainly associated with future margin trend.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/3393NZ030210.docx" type="application/octet-stream" length="170290"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6606696.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>TC Interconnect (515 HK): Setting up a JV to tap into high-voltage LED lighting market- Not Rated</title><category>515</category><category>TC Interconnect</category><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 18 Jan 2010 01:19:00 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2010/1/18/tc-interconnect-515-hk-setting-up-a-jv-to-tap-into-high-volt.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6363684</guid><description><![CDATA[<p class="Bullet1">To Summerize</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- The Ministry of Science and Technology Government set goal to install total 3m LED lamps nationwide by 2012.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Contractor-government-bank model allows local governments pay LED projects by using saved electricity bills later on, which may largely accelerate their accepting and adopting LED technology.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Synergy is emerging between TCI (PCB know-how, manufacturing facilities and listing status) and OOS (LED technology and associated experience).</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- The JV has secured contracts for 55,000 street lamps, 40,000 of which will be delivered in 2010.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- The JV can possibly earn RMB14.6m and RMB22.7m, respectively, in FY12/10F and FY12/11F, translating into HK$10.2m and HK$15.9m net profit contribution to TCI.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- An undemanding 15.0x FY12/10F P/E valuation gives the JV a market value of HK$340.5m. HK$238.3m belongs to the listco, versus its HK$170.4m increase in market capitalization since announcement of the JV agreement.</p>]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/reports-sbi-e2/515NZ160110.pdf" type="application/pdf" length="224998"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6363684.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>NewOcean Energy (342 HK): growing from market consolidation- Not Rated</title><category>342</category><category>NewOcean Energy</category><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 08 Jan 2010 01:49:00 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2010/1/8/newocean-energy-342-hk-growing-from-market-consolidation-not.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6287802</guid><description><![CDATA[<p><strong><em>to summarize&hellip;</em></strong></p>
<p class="Bullet1">- NOE is the biggest LPG importer and exporter in China.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- NOE is growing from market consolidation benefiting from its efficient operation Chain and management</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Gross profit increased 105.3% YoY due to the lower international LPG price for 1H FY12/09A.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Leveraging the facility in Zhuhai to develop the higher margin LPG business in HK and Macau. And it is expected to bring significant profit contribution.&nbsp;</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Expanding Zhuhai Terminal to have throughput capability of 1.6m tons a year, which is expected to complete at the end of 2010.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- The capex for 2010 would be around HK$157.0m, which could be funded by NOE&rsquo;s own funds.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- NoE would still keep its electronic business as a profit contributor, however, it is possible to be disposed in the future.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- The counter is currently trading at 60.8% discount with 9.1x FY12/10F P/E based on our back of pad estimate.</p>]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/reports-sbi-e2/342HQ080110.pdf" type="application/pdf" length="272581"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6287802.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Dragon Hill Wuling (305 HK): Get the show on the road- Not Rated</title><category>305</category><category>Dragon Hill Wuling</category><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 08 Jan 2010 01:45:00 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2010/1/8/dragon-hill-wuling-305-hk-get-the-show-on-the-road-not-rated.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6287784</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong><em>to summarize&hellip;</em></strong></p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Sustainable automobile market in 2010 after extension of favourable policies.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- 31.0% top-line growth in 1H backed by SGMW&rsquo;s 49.2% increase in car sales and DHWL&rsquo;s own 87.8% jump in specialized vehicle segment.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Capacity shortage dragged down gross margin by 0.8pcp to 6.2% in 1H but improvement is expected following Qingdao plant&rsquo;s scaling up.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Impressing progress achieved in specialized vehicle division by exporting 100 electric cars to America and getting one model chosen by the government.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Extra funding is needed to meet capital contribution commitment to the JV and, thereafter, will be used for capacity expansion.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Earnings to hit RMB118.1m in FY12/10F and RMB183.8m in FY12/11F.</p>
<p class="Bullet1">- Fair value estimated at HK$1,341.2m, containing 25.0% valuation discount to peers.</p>]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/reports-sbi-e2/0305NZ080110.pdf" type="application/pdf" length="276422"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6287784.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Tontine Wines Group Ltd. (389 HK): Emerging star from Changbai Mountain - BUY (Int. Coverage)</title><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 04 Jan 2010 09:36:24 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2010/1/4/tontine-wines-group-ltd-389-hk-emerging-star-from-changbai-m.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6215787</guid><description><![CDATA[Investment summary......Favourable long term secular growth in China’s wine market......	Tontine is Tonghua’s largest wine producer......	Clear positioning with differentiated products......	Stable and sustainable supply of quality grapes......  
	Potential to become top equity wine brand......
BUY call with target price HK$2.23. We initiate coverage on Tontine with a BUY call with target price of HK$2.23, representing 21.5x FY12/09P/E and 18.1x FY12/10F P/E based on our estimate......]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/reports-contributors/389HQ040110.pdf" type="application/pdf" length="709902"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6215787.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>2010 research outline-Rainbow after storm</title><category>Strategy</category><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 04 Jan 2010 09:33:58 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2010/1/4/2010-research-outline-rainbow-after-storm.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6215785</guid><description><![CDATA[<p><strong>to summarize&hellip;</strong></p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Sharp rebound of Hong Kong market in 2009 after the financial tsunami.</li>
<li>Our new coverage yield at 52.2% relative to HSI during the year.</li>
<li>China&rsquo;s 2010 outlook remains positive with extra fuel from export and domestic consumption sectors.</li>
<li>Bullish on Hong Kong stock market with confidence from China&rsquo;s encouraging economy performance.</li>
<li>Sectors with obvious policy support may outperform.</li>
<li>Picks of existing coverage include Fufeng (546 HK), Pacific Andes (1174 HK), Ju Teng (3336 HK) and United Laboratory (3933 HK).</li>
</ul>]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/reports-sbi-e2/2010 strategy 301209.pdf" type="application/pdf" length="322933"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6215785.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Sino Biopharma (1177 HK): Further bonus share bring up liquidity-HOLD (unchanged)</title><category>1177</category><category>Healthcare</category><category>Sino-Biopharma</category><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 16 Dec 2009 01:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2009/12/16/sino-biopharma-1177-hk-further-bonus-share-bring-up-liquidit.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6108171</guid><description><![CDATA[<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;" lang="EN-US">Key points:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 24pt; text-indent: -24pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings;" lang="EN-US"><span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">-SB&rsquo;s share price adjusted down corresponding to the bonus share issue.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 24pt; text-indent: -24pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings;" lang="EN-US"><span></span></span><span lang="EN-US">-Maintain HOLD, revising our target price to HK$2.35, representing 22.3x and 18.1x ex-cash FY12/10F P/E.</span></p>]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/reports-sbi-e2/1177HQ141209.pdf" type="application/pdf" length="234491"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6108171.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Fufeng (546 HK): Soaring MSG price-BUY (unchanged)</title><category>546</category><category>Consumer</category><category>Fufeng</category><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 16 Dec 2009 01:00:00 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2009/12/16/fufeng-546-hk-soaring-msg-price-buy-unchanged.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6108176</guid><description><![CDATA[<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;" lang="EN-US">Key points:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 24pt; text-indent: -24pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: Wingdings;" lang="EN-US"><span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">-MSG price surged from RMB7,719/tonne in Sep to RMB10,200 in Nov. </span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;" lang="EN-US"></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 24pt; text-indent: -24pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings;" lang="EN-US"><span>-</span></span><span lang="EN-US">Industry-wide gross margin reached 35.0%+. </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 24pt; text-indent: -24pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings;" lang="EN-US"><span>-<span style="font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"></span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">No major capacity expansion at this stage.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 24pt; text-indent: -24pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings;" lang="EN-US"><span>-</span></span><span lang="EN-US">Earnings revised up to reflect high MSG price.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 24pt; text-indent: -24pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings;" lang="EN-US"><span>-</span></span><span lang="EN-US">Target price changed from HK$4.86 to HK$5.98.</span></p>]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/reports-sbi-e2/0546NZ141209 profit alert.pdf" type="application/pdf" length="269613"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6108176.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Benefun (1130 HK)-Scalable Organic Fertilizer Play</title><category>1130</category><category>Benefun</category><dc:creator>VAYUE.com Team</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2009 09:18:12 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/2009/12/11/benefun-1130-hk-scalable-organic-fertilizer-play.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">331512:3489230:6039270</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>Key points: </p>
<ul>
<li>Re-directed to agriculture sector in 2008.  </li>
<li>Acquired 60,000 mu forest in Xinjiang.  </li>
<li>Completed development of waste treatment system.  </li>
<li>Scalable business model with total solution for big farmers.  </li>
<li>Projects in pipeline.  </li>
<li>Earnings from sole organic fertilizer segment to hit HK$98.0m by FY06/12F</li>
</ul>]]></description><enclosure url="http://www.vayue.com/storage/reports-sbi-e2/1130 HK Benefun research pre-roadshow 111209.pdf" type="application/pdf" length="409323"/><wfw:commentRss>http://www.vayue.com/trading-blog/rss-comments-entry-6039270.xml</wfw:commentRss></item></channel></rss>