to summarize…
-Wasion won orders for 329,725 single-phase smart metres (12.5% of total) in SGCC’s first round of centralized procurement but nil for three-phase ones due to conservative pricing strategy.
-Downside risk on market occupancy is limited, but trial-and-error price adjustment might cause temporary market share loss. Long-term outlook, however, remains positive backed by the company’s leading position in both branding and technology.
-Margin squeeze is anticipated. We believe gross margin of three-phase products will drop ~15pcps while single-phase 5pcps, with reference of past experience from telecom industry.
-Some demand was on hold in 2H 09 due to pending release of smart metre standard and will likely be realized in 2010.
-Earnings forecasts were revised by -9.7%, +6.3% and -19.3%, respectively, for FY12/09F-12/11F.
-Target price was cut from HK$8.14 to HK$5.75 to reflect mainly the expected margin squeeze industry wise.
-The stock was heavily sold recently, which brings buy-in opportunity.
-Risk is at both upside and downside, mainly associated with future margin trend.
Wasion: Margin pressure from centralized procurement, but over-sold